On this Picostat.com statistics page, you will find information about the AustralianElectionPolling data set which pertains to Political opinion polls in Australia, 2004-07. The AustralianElectionPolling data set is found in the pscl R package. You can load the AustralianElectionPolling data set in R by issuing the following command at the console data("AustralianElectionPolling"). This will load the data into a variable called AustralianElectionPolling. If R says the AustralianElectionPolling data set is not found, you can try installing the package by issuing this command install.packages("pscl") and then attempt to reload the data. If you need to download R, you can go to the R project website. You can download a CSV (comma separated values) version of the AustralianElectionPolling R data set. The size of this file is about 26,888 bytes.
Political opinion polls in Australia, 2004-07
The results of 239 published opinion polls measuring vote intentions (1st preference vote intention in a House of Representatives election) between the 2004 and 2007 Australian Federal elections, from 4 survey houses.
A data frame with 239 observations on the following 14 variables.
a numeric vector, percentage of respondents reported as intending to vote for the Australian Labor Party
a numeric vector, percentage of respondents reported as intending to vote for the Liberal Party
a numeric vector, percentage of respondents reported as intending to vote for the National Party
a numeric vector, percentage of respondents reported as intending to vote for the Greens
a numeric vector, percentage of respondents reported as intending to vote for the Family First party
a numeric vector, percentage of respondents reported as intending to vote for the Australian Democrats
a numeric vector, percentage of respondents reported as intending to vote for One Nation
a numeric vector, percentage of respondents reported as expressing no preference or a “don't know” response
a numeric vector, reported sample size of the poll
a factor with levels
Morgan, Phone, indicating the survey house and/or mode of the poll
a Date, reported start of the field period
a Date, reported end of the field period
a character vector, source of the poll report
a character vector, remarks noted by author and/or research assistant coders
Morgan uses two modes: phone and face-to-face.
The 2004 Australian election was on October 9; the ALP won 37.6% of the 1st preferences cast in elections for the House of Representatives. The ALP won the 2007 election (November 24) with 43.4% of 1st preferences.
The ALP changed leaders twice in the 2004-07 inter-election period spanned by these data: (1) Mark Latham resigned the ALP leadership on January 18 2005 and was replaced by Kim Beazley; (2) Beazley lost the ALP leadership to Kevin Rudd on December 4, 2006.
The then Prime Minister, John Howard, announced the November 2007 election on October 14, 2007.
source variable. Andrea Abel assisted with the data collection.
Jackman, Simon. 2009. Bayesian Analysis for the Social Sciences. Wiley: Hoboken, New Jersey. Example 9.3.
lattice::xyplot(ALP ~ startDate | org,
ylab="ALP")## test for house effects
y <- AustralianElectionPolling$ALP/100
v <- y*(1-y)/AustralianElectionPolling$sampleSize
w <- 1/v
m1 <- mgcv::gam(y ~ s(as.numeric(startDate)),
m2 <- update(m1, ~ . + org)
Dataset imported from https://www.r-project.org.